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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/21 10:49

   Corn, Wheat Down; Soybeans Up Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 6 to 7 cents lower, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is 8 
to 13 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 120 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is narrowly mixed. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker 
with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold up $18.00.

   CORN:

   Corn trade is 6 to 7 cents lower at midday Tuesday with soft spread action 
and trade showing range-bound action as we look to see how outside markets hold 
up and how harvest progresses short term. Ethanol margins will continue to 
struggle with natural gas costs seeing a pullback Tuesday as demand rebounds a 
bit to start the week. South America will continue with early full season corn 
planting and little weather concerns there so far. Corn basis will continue to 
fade to harvest, which should push to above-average pace with the higher temps 
near term and some rains in the western belt. Weekly crop progress showed corn 
93% dented versus 89% on average, 57% mature versus 47% on average, and 10% 
harvested versus 9% on average; 58% good to excellent and 14% poor to very 
poor, up 1%. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at 
$4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.28.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade holding support at the 
lower end of the range and trade seeing early harvest pressure as shipping 
remains constrained, along with limited early issues in South America and a 
slow pace of sale announcements in recent days. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher 
and oil is flat to 0.10 cent higher. Warmer weather should continue to push the 
crop towards maturity with harvest ramping up this week and weekly crop 
progress showing 58% dropping leaves versus 48% on average, 6% harvested, same 
as average, with 58% good to excellent and 14% poor to very poor, up 1%. Basis 
levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. South American planting will 
get more attention into the end of the month as well. On the November soybean 
chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.95 with support at the recent low at 
$12.57 1/2.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 8 to 13 cents lower with Minneapolis action leading at midday 
and limited spillover Tuesday morning from outside markets and row crops. The 
dollar pushed back over 93 points carrying action back to the summer highs on 
flight to safety action holding gains Tuesday. KC is 1 cent weaker than Chicago 
with flat action so far, with Minneapolis at a 196-cent premium on the December 
to Chicago. Weekly crop progress showing winter wheat 21% planted versus 18% on 
average, 3% emerged versus 2% on average. Weather in the Plains looks dry short 
term as planting gets going with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere 
weather so far. KC December on the chart has resistance at the 20-day at $7.10, 
which we faded from Monday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.83.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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